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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we recap the Pitt basketball season that just ended earlier this week and where the program goes from here. I also take a look at some of the top storylines as the Pitt football team gets ready for week two of spring ball.
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THREE THINGS WE KNOW
A disaster of a season has mercifully come to an end
The Pitt basketball season ended on Tuesday afternoon in the opening game of the 2022 ACC Tournament to the 13th seeded Boston College Eagles by a score of 66-46. Pitt finished the season with an 11-21 record, the sixth straight year this program has finished below .500 and without a postseason appearance.
The 2021-22 season seemed doomed before it even started. The Panthers lost some key players at the end of last season when Xavier Johnson and Au’Diese Toney opted to transfer, leaving a puzzling void in the program after both came to Pitt in Jeff Capel’s inaugural recruiting class and were day one starters.
Justin Champagnie chose to enter the NBA after an All-ACC performance as a sophom*ore, which set this team back in many ways. After losing those three players, the Pitt coaches never seemed to find suitable replacements to bolster the roster for this past season.
There was of course that long, tangled web of following the Efton Reid recruitment, which did not work out well for this program, like many recruitments of top players have played out before him. In the end, Pitt banked on what it had returning with a core centered around Nike Sibande, Ithiel Horton, and Femi Odukale. The hope was that former four-star recruits John Hugley and William Jeffress would blossom into key contributors, and perhaps they would get lucky with some of the newcomers.
Maybe if all those things happened just right then perhaps this team could have been at least respectable this season. That was the best case scenario, which was ominous at best to start the season.
Well unfortunately for Jeff Capel and the Panthers, the worst case scenario happened instead. Sibande was lost for the season in an exhibition game. Horton was suspended indefinitely days later for an off-the-court incident. The development of some promising young players never really came into being, mixing quite the co*cktail of disaster for this team.
Pitt opened the season with a 15-point loss to The Citadel, followed by a 15-point loss to rival West Virginia days later. The 0-2 start set the tone for what would be a long, harrowing season for the Panthers.
If the off-the-court setbacks weren’t enough, the team added to the general frustration surrounding the program with three 1-point losses before January.
In many ways, this was just a season that was never meant to be.
There were some bright spots, however. John Hugley emerging as a legitimate force in this league stands out the most. Mo Gueye coming out of nowhere to create some excitement was fun to watch. There were some nice wins, too. Stealing a victory over St. John’s in the Garden was a solid non-conference win.
Anytime Pitt can beat Syracuse is never a bad thing, and the team managed to pull that off in January in impressive fashion. The Panthers even had a modest three-game winning streak in February highlighted by a win over North Carolina on the road.
Although, when you finish with an 11-21 record, the bad certainly outweighs the good. Pitt ended the season on a five-game losing streak, with an average margin of defeat of 20.2 points in that stretch. Pitt also finished with a pair of four-game losing streaks mixed in throughout the season as well.
Pitt’s finish to the season came to a Boston College team that only had five wins since early December coming into the contest, and the worst thing about it was that the Panthers got blown off the court. The Eagles benefitted from a 25-3 run that spanned the end of the first half well into the second to completely humble the Panthers.
A season that started with a loss to The Citadel and ends with a 20-point defeat to annual ACC cellar dweller Boston College is pretty telling of where things are right now for this program.
Jeff Capel is going to be the coach next season
I know there is speculation that Pitt could be looking to move on from Jeff Capel after what has played out over the last four seasons. After all, Capel has yet to generate a winning season in Pittsburgh and most of his teams have faltered down the stretch of each year. Capel’s recruiting has been lackluster since he arrived, and Pitt currently does not have a commitment for the class of 2022 either. There have been transfer issues, as Pitt has failed to retain its best players under the current regime.
Here is the thing…Jeff Capel is going to be Pitt’s head coach next season.
At this stage of the game, there is nothing to suggest that Pitt will be paying their coach the hefty buyout that is reportedly around 17 million dollars. Nor should they. It is an insanely high number to be frank, and it gets reduced with each passing year. I think Pitt is going to have to bite the bullet this year and proceed with Capel as the head coach, despite four seasons of evidence this hiring will not materialize the way the school had hoped it would.
On the other end of things, I do not expect Capel to look to negotiate that number down either. Why turn down 17 million dollars? Both parties are heading into the offseason with the understanding that he will be the head coach next for the 2022-23 season.
The language of the contract and the extension given after one season were admittedly bad moves by Heather Lyke and the Pitt administration. Having this type of buyout is essentially the worst case scenario for where the program is right now as it feels like it is stuck, but it is a bed all parties involved made and now everyone has to lie in it.
The buyout reportedly goes down next season, and goes down significantly in two years. I think for Pitt it’s a waiting game at this point. The school isn’t going to pay someone 17 million dollars to NOT coach. Everything in the history of this school’s athletic programs say as much, too. There is not going to be a giant donor to pay a coach off like an SEC football school. It's just not realistic.
I know there will be speculation on social media and message boards about Capel looking to move on and negotiate out of his deal. Pitt Athletic Director Heather Lyke declining to comment on the situation to numerous media outlets around town will only further that speculation, but in the end I really don’t see a coaching change happening this offseason.
An apathetic fan base
The Rivals.com network, and specifically the community we have built here at Panther-Lair.com creates a unique perspective from my vantage point. As someone that covers the Pitt basketball team, I have direct access to how the fan base feels with our message boards and social media. I see all the posts, comments, questions, complaints, and signs of disappointment after every single game.
I get it, too.
The one thing I have observed is a growing sense of apathy towards this basketball program, and that is not a good thing for the school. I know there is frustration, bewilderment, and anger after what has transpired over the last six seasons. After all, this Pitt basketball program in the early 2000’s was a force and a consistent national championship contender for at least a decade, and now it does not even resemble anything close to that.
I attended games at the Petersen Events Center this season, but you didn’t have to be in the building to feel it. All you had to do was flip on the TV. It was empty. Most games this past season could have been held at Pitt’s old home, Fitzgerald Field House with seats to spare. The Oakland Zoo didn’t feel like the Oakland Zoo. The once feared home court for Pitt’s opponents was a ghost town for the most part of the season.
It is not just the feeling at the games, but also online as well. I know Twitter does not account for the opinion of the entire fan base, but it might as well in this case. Pitt fans are very fed up right now and it’s apparent, and they have a unified voice from what I have seen. This is not Steelers fans arguing about whether or not to fire Mike Tomlin after a loss, but rather Pitt fans collectively wondering why a coaching change hasn't happened yet.
As I said in this business, you see fan reactions instantaneously. A three-and-out by the football team can cause five new threads on the message boards during a game, but you can kind of recognize the difference between overreactions, and down right anger from the fans.
This is the latter.
Pitt basketball fans are mad, dejected, and defeated at the current state of affairs. I have heard, read, and felt that from you guys all season. It is hard to believe it got this way, especially when other programs in the school are succeeding in big ways, but it has. Pitt Basketball has a lot to clean up with itself right now, and winning more games would solve just about all of their problems, but that feels like a far off proposition at this point.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What will the 2022-23 roster look like?
Now that the season is over, the Pitt coaching staff will likely turn its full attention on building and turning over the roster for next year. The Panthers are set to lose a pair of seniors, Mo Gueye and Onye Ezeakudo, but everyone else is eligible to return.
As we know the entire sport of college basketball has changed in the past five years. The creation of the transfer portal and also the NCAA waiving the one-year transfer rule has almost made for free agency in college basketball. Having said that, while Pitt is only losing two players as it stands today, that number can of course grow throughout the next few weeks. It is not a Pitt specific thing either, college basketball has changed and it is part of the game.
Let’s recap the players eligible to return for next season.
Seniors (5): Jamarius Burton, Ithiel Horton , Dan Oladapo, Chris Payton, Nike Sibande
Juniors (5): Max Amadasun, Noah Collier, John Hugley, William Jeffress, Femi Odukale.
Sophom*ores (1): Nate Santos
Pitt has 11 scholarship players lined up for next season, meaning they have two spots to play with in the 2022 signing class. Again, that number could grow. Of the 11 returnees, only six had a regular role this past season, plus Nike Sibande, who likely would have been a starter this past season had it not been for an injury. I think there may be some players moving on, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Obviously Pitt needs a lot of help. Jeff Capel said as much in the postgame press conference on Tuesday saying they need to get ‘better players’ and while it sounded harsh at the time, it’s also true. This program did not have the necessary depth to compete for a full season in the ACC, and it showed in the results. Pitt needs more of an offensive punch, as the outside shooting held the team back throughout much of the season. The Panthers could use a true point guard that could handle and take care of the ball better, after a season that was plagued by too many turnovers in almost every single game. Hugley could also use some help inside as well. Simply put, any kind of influx of talent would be welcomed.
Pitt could use help at just about every spot on the floor, and given Capel’s approach towards recruiting this year, it looks like most, if not all open roster spots will be prioritized by the transfer portal. Pitt has not been linked to many 2022 high school prospects of late, aside from some interest in local standout Adou Thiero. It feels like portal or bust.
Given the state of the program, and a team that needs a quick fix towards competitiveness, looking for help in the portal should be the plan. We saw this year Wake Forest created a quick turnaround with some help from the portal, and that’s just one example of a team in Pitt’s league. It has happened across college basketball and this team needs a quick spark, and maybe some luck too.
Mo Gueye was more than just a pleasant surprise in the portal, he turned out to be a very good player that has some pro potential. There are cases like that all over the country, and we’ll see hundreds of names enter the portal in the next couple of weeks, and Pitt will reach out to a lot of them hoping to find that next steal.
There is very likely a key part of Pitt’s team next season that is not even in the portal yet and playing out his season at another program. That is the unique thing. You don't know what the portal will bring, but it has made for some wild off-seasons in the sport in recent history.
Recruiting and developing high school players is how most coaches would like to build a program, Jeff Capel included, but circ*mstances can change. Pitt needs help right away, and the portal is the best chance of making that happen before next season.
What are we watching for in the second week of spring ball?
Time to take a quick break on the basketball program, and look at some football. The Pitt football team will start up with spring football on Tuesday, after the school had spring break this past week. Pitt has 11 more practice sessions to get through before the Spring game on April 9th.
We have talked at length about how this is a veteran team and the No. 1 objective of spring football is to stay healthy, but there are other things we are watching out for in these practices.
Pat Narduzzi has not named a starting quarterback for next season, and that is certainly not a surprise. USC transfer Kedon Slovis and longtime backup Nick Patti are battling it out right now for the starting spot. Both quarterbacks have earned praise through the first three practices, and the coaches do not seem to be rushed to make a decision either. I think this will be an ongoing storyline up through fall camp, but it will be interesting to see the two quarterbacks go through some more vigorous drills during the team’s open media window.
The linebacker position is the one everyone is keeping an eye on right now on defense. Pitt has a good one in Sir’Vocea Dennis. After earning second team All-ACC honors a season ago, Dennis is the clear leader at this spot and should be one of the best defensive players in the conference. Dennis spoke during the first week in camp, and ackowledged this group is young. Pitt lost nearly every linebacker that played significant snaps a season ago. There is intrigue around Notre Dame transfer Shayne Simon, as well as young standouts Bangally Kamara and Solomon DeShields. It’s early, but we should start to see some type of rotation in the second week of spring ball.
There are also younger players that have caught our attention. Pitt signed some talented players in the class of 2021 that took redshirts a season ago, and now will be looking to make a move up the depth chart. The most notable ones of course are Elliot Donald, Nahki Johnson, and Dorien Ford — a trio of defensive linemen from Pitt’s backyard. While the depth and experience on the defensive line is strong, there may be opportunities for these to make a push for playing time.
There are battles to watch on the offensive line. Who can step up at tight end beyond Gavin Bartholomew? Who wins the starting cornerback jobs? How about special teams? Nobody has talked much about Pitt needing a new punter this season.
The Pitt football team has a number of different storylines to track this spring and after a quick one week break, the team marches on with four weeks of spring football pending, and we look forward to telling you all about the stories that come out of those practice sessions, beginning on Tuesday.
ONE PREDICTION
Anything short of an NIT will make 2022-23 Capel’s final season at Pitt
I feel confident that Jeff Capel will be Pitt’s coach next season. I am not willing to make any proclamations beyond that, but my guess is if next season does not result in a postseason appearance of any kind — NCAA Tournament or NIT — I believe that will be the end of the Jeff Capel era in Pittsburgh.
It is that simple: he needs to make the postseason or that is it. There has been little progress made in wins and losses over the past four seasons. Given the growing frustration towards this program, year five has to show something tangible. A solid 2023 recruiting class will not cut it, a win or two in the ACC Tournament won’t either. Even a better ACC record is not going to be enough. It needs to be something fans and critics can point to with actual results, and that’s the postseason.
It may not sound like such a bold prediction given his overall record in four years, but the buyout following next season is still a significant one, reportedly in the 10-12 million dollar range. That still won’t be an easy check to cut, but the Pitt administration may not have a choice by next year. They do this season, and I think it is clear which direction they are heading towards.
Pitt had a very proud basketball program not that long ago, but with each passing loss, recruiting miss, and collapse down the stretch of every season it feels further and further away.
Next year feels like the breaking point, and there are only two outcomes: win and stay, or Pitt will be making a coaching change. I do not see an in-between.
